Research

I study how religious observance affects political violence and civilian protest. I argue that greater observance reprices political action according to its doctrinal compatibility, raising the return to actions that doctrine can frame as worship while increasing the opportunity cost of actions that compete with worship for scarce time. I test this mechanism using Ramadan, exploiting the Islamic lunar calendar's rotation through the Gregorian year as plausibly exogenous variation in observance. Armed conflict rises during Ramadan in predominantly Muslim states, while civilian protest declines. The increase in conflict is driven by religious insurgencies, not governments or secular-nationalist groups. A text analysis of a decade of weekly newsletters from a transnational insurgency shows that militant propaganda becomes more devotional during the month. Hourly military data from Afghanistan reveal that the daytime fast shapes the timing of escalation, shifting labor-intensive combat into the night. On the civilian side, global surveys show that Muslims report more frequent prayer during Ramadan, alongside lower political interest and willingness to demonstrate, with no comparable changes among non-Muslims. These findings show how a common increase in religious observance can produce opposite political responses by changing the relative returns to actions with different doctrinal compatibility.

How does geopolitical fragmentation reshape the economic geography of cities? I exploit the 1991 Soviet collapse, which generated opposite market access shocks across regions. Using difference-in-differences on 1,396 cities spanning 1970–2021, I show that in post-Soviet Europe, cities near newly enforced borders experienced annualized population declines of 0.4–0.6 percentage points relative to interior cities, implying cumulative contractions of roughly 15%. In Central Asia, cities near previously sealed frontiers grew about 1 percentage point faster. Effects attenuate with distance, are amplified for manufacturing-intensive cities, and survive matching on pre-1991 characteristics. The findings point to market access as the primary channel.

Nation states offer a cohesive identity to a diverse citizenry, at once minimizing their differences and elevating their commonality. While collective success can strengthen national identity, collective adversity can unravel it. We study the interplay between religious identity and national identity and how it is influenced by a sporting rivalry of unparalleled geopolitical consequence: international cricket matches between India and Pakistan. When India has a decisive game against Pakistan (win or loss), we find a significant increase in religious violence in Indian districts with a significant Muslim minority. This effect is even greater following a loss. In contrast, Indian cricketing losses against other countries do not incite religious violence. Our results underscore the fragility of identity to symbolic shocks and its importance in influencing social cohesion.